Revenue Is a Lagging Indicator

The best founders show their edge before the numbers ever do.

As investors, we spend a lot of time looking at metrics. But some of the most valuable signals show up before the numbers do.

I’ve seen enough breakout companies to know: greatness has a scent. It’s behavioral. Not in a culty “founder aura” kind of way. More like: they do weirdly specific things that seem boring at the time but later turn out to be predictive of success.

And if you’re paying attention, you can smell it at seed, long before the revenue curve bends. When I see even half of these, I lean in:

1. They obsess over inputs, not outcomes. Not revenue. Not even bookings. Inputs. Like: “Are our reps actually working the pipeline?” or “Are we interviewing better candidates than last month?” It’s very unsexy. It’s also how machines get built.

2. They move fast and keep tempo steady. Speed isn’t about sprinting. It’s about resetting quickly and building momentum. I’ve seen founders close hires in days, ship MVPs in weeks, and rework pricing between investor calls. The common thread? They don’t wait for perfect. They iterate toward clarity - and do it on a drumbeat.

3. They seek truth, not comfort. They don’t spin. They’ll tell you the CAC is spiking, churn crept up, and the new GTM motion is flailing - before you have to ask. They want to be right, not look right. That mindset compounds.

4. They write. Often. And clearly. Written communication reveals how someone thinks. The strongest founders I’ve backed write weekly updates, investor notes, team strategy docs - and they’re not trying to sound smart. They’re trying to make themselves understood. (Also: founders who write well usually hire well.)

5. They make hard decisions early. Great founders don’t defer the inevitable. They let go of a wrong hire after 6 weeks, not 6 months. They shut down the second product line while it’s still “promising.” Speed isn’t just about shipping - it’s about deciding.

6. They ask for context, not just advice. The best founders don’t ask “What should I do?” They ask: “What did you see work in a similar company?” or “What were the tradeoffs they faced?” They treat you like a pattern library, not a guru. That level of discernment is rare - and a real accelerant.

7. They care about internal narrative as much as external pitch. Great founders shape how their team understands progress - not just how investors see it. That coherence shows up in culture, retention, and execution speed. Alignment, it turns out, is a force multiplier.

8. They manage time like capital. They don’t run around breathless. They’re not overbooked.They’re not drowning in context switches. Instead, they treat time like burn: tracked, intentional, protected. You can feel it in a 30-minute call. You can see it in their calendars. Time is the scarcest Series A resource.

9. They obsess over the customer. Brian Chesky still cold‑emails disgruntled hosts every Sunday night. The best founders never outsource the feedback loop - it keeps product, GTM, and narrative grounded in reality. Founders who talk to customers every single week spot shifts in usage, pricing tension, or churn signals long before the dashboards light up.

10. They close. This one’s hard to quantify but easy to feel. The best founders close: Candidates. Customers. Partners. Their co-founder’s doubts. Their own.
    They create gravitational pull - and it shows up long before revenue.

By the time the metrics look great, the story is already written. You don’t bet on traction. You bet on behavior.

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